Product Code: TBDK
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List Of Contents And Tables
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
COVID-19 impact on tobacco
COVID-19 country impact
Company response
Retailing shift
What next for tobacco?
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
Legislation
Legislative overview
Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Minimum legal smoking age
Smoking prevalence
Tar levels
Health warnings
Plain packaging
Advertising and sponsorship
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in public places
Low ignition propensity (LIP) cigarette regulation
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Reduced harm
Vapour products
PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS
MARKET INDICATORS
Table 1 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2015-2020
MARKET DATA
Table 2 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 3 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 4 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 5 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 6 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 7 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 8 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 9 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENT
DISCLAIMER
SOURCES
Summary 2 Research Sources
CIGARS, CIGARILLOS AND SMOKING TOBACCO IN DENMARK
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2020 IMPACT
Home seclusion, the closure of bars and cigar clubs and border restrictions impact category sales in 2020
Pandemic provides strong boost for e-commerce
Cigars benefits from premiumisation trend as smokers enduring lockdown spend more money on higher-end cigars
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES
Further tax rises in January 2022 have little negative impact on sales of cigars due to the more exclusive nature of these products compared to cigarettes
Contraction in forecast period volume sales as society reopens, the health trend gathers momentum and all but core consumers remain in the category
Growth in e-commerce over the forecast period as consumers come to appreciate the convenience and wider product choice of this channel
CATEGORY DATA
Table 42 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 43 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 44 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 45 Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 47 Sales of Cigarillos by Price Platform 2015-2020
Table 48 NBO Company Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 49 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars and Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 50 NBO Company Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 51 LBN Brand Shares of Cigars: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 52 NBO Company Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 53 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarillos: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 54 NBO Company Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 55 LBN Brand Shares of Smoking Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 56 NBO Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 57 LBN Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 58 NBO Company Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 59 LBN Brand Shares of Fine Cut Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 60 Distribution of Cigars and Cigarillos by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 61 Distribution of Smoking Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 62 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 63 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 64 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 65 Forecast Sales of Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
TOBACCO FREE ORAL NICOTINE IN DENMARK
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2020 IMPACT
Producers take advantage of legal loophole around marketing and no restrictions covering the nicotine content of nicotine pouches, with some brands offering much higher levels than cigarettes
Category stimulated by new product launches and innovative flavour variants
Industry players lower their prices in conjunction with tax increases in cigarettes
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES
Regulations in place from 1 April 2021 reduce the category's growth potential
Strong and growing share of e-commerce thanks to new regulations
The easing of COVID-19 restrictions shifts location of consumption but has no effect on volume sales
CATEGORY DATA
Table 10 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2015-2020
Table 11 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 12 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2019-2020
Table 13 Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: % Value Growth 2019-2020
Table 14 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 15 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 16 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: Volume 2020-2025
Table 17 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 19 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Free Oral Nicotine by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
CIGARETTES IN DENMARK
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2020 IMPACT
Significant tax increases provide a boon for illicit trade, although the closure of the country's borders lessen this effect somewhat
Philip Morris and British American Tobacco absorb a proportion of the tax rises in a bid to minimise losses in volume sales
Companies become more innovative in response to the ban on menthol in cigarettes
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES
Tax rises achieve strong support from the public and reduce volume sales of cigarettes over the forecast period
Younger generations eschew cigarettes thanks to government efforts to reduce the smoking rate
Younger audience of smoking age attracted by heated tobacco and increasingly eschew cigarettes
TAXATION AND PRICING
Taxation rates
Summary 3 Taxation and Duty Levies 2015-2020
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples
CATEGORY DATA
Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 29 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 30 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 32 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2015-2020
Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2020-2025
Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2020-2025
Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2020-2025
SMOKELESS TOBACCO, E-VAPOUR PRODUCTS AND HEATED TOBACCO IN DENMARK
KEY DATA FINDINGS
2020 IMPACT
Strong growth in chewing tobacco especially among consumers under the legal smoking age
Wide variety of flavours and lower prices in relation to cigarettes boost the appeal of e-vapour products in 2020
Tax rises in cigarettes benefit heated tobacco in 2020
RECOVERY AND OPPORTUNITIES
Stricter legislation in flavour variants and higher taxes boost illicit trade but attract past consumers of menthol cigarettes
Growth in chewing tobacco due to smoke-free ban in schools and further tax hikes in cigarettes
Promising outlook for heated tobacco due to lower prices and healthier perception compared to cigarettes
CATEGORY INDICATORS
Table 66 Number of Adult Vapers 2015-2020
CATEGORY DATA
Table 67 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2015-2020
Table 68 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2015-2020
Table 69 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2015-2020
Table 70 Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2016-2020
Table 71 Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2015-2020
Table 72 Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2016-2020
Table 73 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2015-2020
Table 74 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2015-2020
Table 75 Sales of E-Liquids by Nicotene Strength: % Value 2018-2020
Table 76 NBO Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 77 LBN Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 78 NBO Company Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2016-2020
Table 79 LBN Brand Shares of E-Vapour Products: % Value 2017-2020
Table 80 NBO Company Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 81 LBN Brand Shares of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 82 NBO Company Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2016-2020
Table 83 LBN Brand Shares of Heated Tobacco: % Volume 2017-2020
Table 84 Distribution of Smokeless Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 85 Distribution of E-Vapour Products by Format: % Value 2015-2020
Table 86 Distribution of Tobacco Heating Devices by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 87 Distribution of Heated Tobacco by Format: % Volume 2015-2020
Table 88 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2020-2025
Table 89 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 90 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: Volume 2020-2025
Table 91 Forecast Sales of Tobacco Heating Devices: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 92 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: Volume 2020-2025
Table 93 Forecast Sales of Heated Tobacco: % Volume Growth 2020-2025
Table 94 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: Value 2020-2025
Table 95 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco, E-Vapour Products and Heated Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2020-2025
